Oklahoma City hosts Phoenix at Paycom Center on Monday, October 26 (8:00 PM ET), and the Suns arrive off their best night of the young season. Devin Booker scored 43 points in Saturday’s 131-122 home-opener win over a short-handed Golden State team, a game that followed a 124-83 loss at Portland to open the year. The Thunder are 3-0, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is looking to bounce back after scoring just 17 points on 6-of-19 shooting in Thursday’s 96-84 win over Denver. Let’s find the edge.
Thunder vs Suns: The Setup
Oklahoma City won 68 games last season and fell to San Antonio in the Western Conference finals, so this is a contender, not the defending champion (that’s the Knicks). The Thunder have been dominant defensively early, holding Denver to 84 points on Thursday, and Chet Holmgren grabbed 17 rebounds in that win while Jalen Williams led the team with 21 points. ESPN lists Oklahoma City as a 9.5-point home favorite with a total of 218.5.
Phoenix is built around Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Miles Bridges and Luke Kennard, with Collin Gillespie and Jordan Goodwin in the rotation, and Jordan Ott is the coach. The Suns lost to Oklahoma City in the first round last spring. Booker made 17 of 25 shots against Golden State, but Phoenix also shot just 1-of-12 from three in the first quarter of that game, and it was facing a Warriors team missing several starters.
Where the Edge Is
SGA’s Bounce-Back Spot
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points per game last year. A rare off night against Denver should make his points prop worth a look at home, but books may shade the number down after a 17-point game, so shop around.
Phoenix’s Defense vs OKC’s Pressure
Phoenix scored plenty Saturday, but it still allowed 122 to a depleted Golden State group after getting blown out by Portland in the opener. Oklahoma City’s defense is the best unit in this matchup by a wide margin, which makes a double-digit spread feel fairly priced rather than a bargain.
The Plays
- Thunder -9.5: 1 unit. Fair price for the better team at home, and not a great number to pay full price for, so shop for -9 or better.
- SGA Over points (shop): Bounce-back spot with a season-long scoring average above 31.
- Chet Holmgren rebounds Over (shop): He had 17 against Denver, and Phoenix has struggled on the glass in the early going.
- Total 218.5: Pass. Phoenix just scored 131 against a depleted opponent, which makes the number tougher to read.
The Strategy
Compare numbers across books before betting, since spreads this large can move several points in either direction by game time. For a refresher on how we handled the last time OKC hosted a Western rival, read our recap of the Thunder’s win over Denver.
Is SGA’s quiet night against Denver a one-off, or the start of a pattern? Let us know in the comments.
“WannaBet.com may receive compensation from the sportsbooks mentioned in this post if you sign up using our links. This doesn’t cost you a dime, but it keeps the lights on. Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (USA) or 1-866-531-2600 (Ontario, CA). 21+ only.”
