The Denver Nuggets host the Golden State Warriors at Ball Arena on Monday, October 26 (10:00 PM ET), with the Warriors 0-3 and badly shorthanded. Nikola Jokić, a three-time MVP, leads a Denver team that lost 96-84 at Oklahoma City on Thursday and then beat New Orleans in overtime at home on Saturday to move to 1-1. Golden State lost 131-122 in Phoenix on Saturday, its third game in four days. Let’s look at where the numbers point.
The Setup
Denver has won eight straight home meetings with Golden State, and the Nuggets have the clearer rebounding edge (about 52 per game early in the year). Jamal Murray and Jokić have both started productively, and the OT win over New Orleans showed Denver can win a high-scoring game.
The Warriors played Saturday without Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski and Al Horford. Curry’s status for Monday is unconfirmed, and Jimmy Butler is out after tearing his ACL last season, as is Moses Moody. Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg scored a season-high 26 points with six threes in Phoenix, and De’Anthony Melton added 25, so the Warriors have found some scoring even without their stars. They’ve given up at least 111 in all three losses, though, and are allowing about 123 points per game.
Where the Edge Is
Denver’s Advantage
Denver has the best player on the floor, home court at altitude and a clear rebounding advantage. Golden State’s defense has been the problem so far, and it’s difficult to see that fixing itself against a Jokić-led offense.
Golden State’s Path
The Warriors’ route to a cover is Curry playing (if cleared) plus a hot night from three. That’s a high-variance outcome, so we’re staying away from the Warriors’ team total and focusing on Denver.
The Plays
- Nuggets spread: 1.5 units at -6.5 or better. Books are posting the Nuggets from -5.5 to -7.5 (ESPN and FanDuel have -7.5 with a total of 234.5, and the moneyline is around -270 / +220). Shop for the best number and be aware that a Curry return could move it.
- Jokić points Over 23.5 (shop): Golden State’s defense gives up big scoring nights, and a big home favorite keeps him in the game for 30-plus minutes.
- Pass on the Warriors team total: Three-point variance makes it hard to find an edge.
The Strategy
Wait for the injury report before betting, since Curry’s status is the main swing factor on both the spread and the total. For a refresher on how to evaluate a number, read Beating the Closing Line, and for Denver’s last home-court result against a West power, see our recap of the Thunder’s win over the Nuggets.
Are you riding the three-time MVP at home, or do you think Golden State’s young group can keep it close? Let us know in the comments.
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