Forty points, 14-of-22 shooting, 5-of-6 from three, and a loss. Ty Jerome had the best individual night on Monday’s NBA slate, but the New Orleans Pelicans beat the Memphis Grizzlies 135-134 in overtime at FedExForum.
If you had Jerome’s points over, you got paid in full. If you had Memphis on the moneyline, you just learned the most expensive lesson in props: a player’s ceiling and his team’s result are two different bets.
How Did the Pelicans Beat the Grizzlies?
Second chances. New Orleans grabbed 14 offensive rebounds and turned them into 22 second-chance points, while Memphis managed just 9. In a game decided by one point, that gap is the whole story.
Zion Williamson led the way with 25 points and 11 rebounds, going 9 of 15 from the floor and 7 of 9 at the line. Derik Queen added 20 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists, and Trey Murphy III chipped in 18 on 3-of-5 shooting from deep.
| Pelicans | PTS | REB | AST | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | 25 | 11 | 4 | Double-double, 7-9 FT |
| Derik Queen | 20 | 7 | 5 | 7-13 FG |
| Trey Murphy III | 18 | 5 | 5 | 3-5 from three |
| Jeremiah Fears | 12 | 4 | 7 | 5-17 FG |
The Pelicans also took care of the ball. Just 8 turnovers against Memphis’s 16, worth 21 points off turnovers for New Orleans versus 7 for Memphis.
Jamahl Mosley’s group didn’t win the shooting battle. Memphis hit 18 of 40 from three to New Orleans’s 14 of 37. They won the possession battle, and possessions are what actually move the scoreboard.
The Strategy:
- Fade single-player narratives on the moneyline. Jerome’s 40 was elite, but one hot shooter doesn’t beat a 14-to-11 offensive rebounding gap and an 8-to-16 turnover split.
- Offensive rebounding props are underpriced. Zion and Queen gave New Orleans interior volume that box-score casuals ignore.
- Turnover differentials predict close games better than shooting splits. Shooting regresses. Ball security is a repeatable skill.
What Does Ty Jerome’s 40-Point Game Mean for Player Props?
It means the market will overreact. Jerome made 5 of his 6 threes and 7 of 8 free throws, and books in New York, New Jersey and Ontario will likely shade his next points line up off a performance like this.
That’s your signal to slow down, not chase. A 75% effective field goal percentage is a tail outcome, and buying a player right after his best shooting night is paying retail for a stock at its 52-week high.
The rest of Memphis is worth noting too. Cameron Boozer posted 18 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists, Isaiah Stewart added 14, and Cam Spencer had 13 with 7 assists. Zach Edey grabbed 9 rebounds, 6 of them offensive, but fouled out.
The Plays (going forward):
- Sell high on Jerome points overs. Wait for a cold night before buying back in at a lower number.
- Zion rebounds and points+rebounds combos. His interior workload is stable and doesn’t depend on jump shooting.
- Queen assists overs. Five assists from a big man means the offense runs through him more than his price suggests.
- Edey foul-trouble angle. When a center fouls out, his rebound props die early. Factor foul rate into big-man unders.
One more note for the full-game bettors. A 269-point combined final in a one-point overtime game is the kind of result that blows past almost any posted total, and live overs were the market to own once the shooting heated up.
Fears had a rough night at 5 of 17, but his 7 assists kept his combo props alive. That’s why points-plus-assists markets beat straight scoring props for guards in slumps.
Hot take: Jerome’s 40 in a loss is the most misleading box score of the week, and anyone chasing his next points line is about to pay the juice for it. Are you selling Jerome or buying the hot hand? Drop it in the comments.
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