The takeaway: This Atlantic Division game comes down to the penalty box and the crease. Ottawa gave up four power-play goals in a 6-3 loss at Anaheim on Sunday after leading 3-0, and it’s playing without No. 1 goalie Linus Ullmark. Buffalo has won three straight. Puck drop is 7:30 PM ET Wednesday at KeyBank Center, and we’re on the Sabres moneyline at -130.
Blowing a three-goal lead isn’t just bad luck. It’s a risk-management failure. Ottawa took seven penalties, and Anaheim made them pay.
What went wrong for Ottawa in Anaheim?
The Senators scored three times in the first period through Claude Giroux, Michael Amadio and Philip Tomasino. Then the Ducks scored three in the second and three in the third.
Anaheim went 4-for-5 on the power play. Dylan Cozens picked up 15 penalty minutes on a major and a misconduct, and Ottawa’s own power play went 0-for-3. Giroux finished with a goal and an assist, and Jake Sanderson had two assists.
The Senators had won 5-1 at San Jose the night before, so the form isn’t all bad. The discipline is the issue.
Who is starting in goal for Senators vs Sabres?
Nothing is confirmed yet. Jonas Johansson is the projected starter for Ottawa with Ullmark sidelined by a lower-body injury, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is projected for Buffalo. Ottawa is 7-1-0 when Ullmark plays and has struggled without him.
Starters usually get confirmed after the morning skate, so check before you bet. A surprise in either crease will move this number.
How did Buffalo win in Los Angeles?
The Sabres outshot the Kings 31-29, blocked 30 shots and made their power play count. Jack Quinn scored a power-play goal and added an assist. Rasmus Dahlin and Zach Benson each had two assists.
The weakness was the faceoff circle. Buffalo lost 34 of 53 draws. Against an Ottawa team that won 56.9% of faceoffs at Anaheim, possession could tilt toward the Senators.
Have the Senators had Buffalo’s number?
The last meeting went Ottawa’s way, 4-1 on April 2, 2026. Ottawa (9-6-1) also sits two points ahead of Buffalo (7-4-3) in the standings, though the Sabres have two games in hand.
The Odds Board
DraftKings lines as of Wednesday morning. Buffalo opened at -148 and has drifted to -130, so the market is getting a better price on the home team. Shop around in NY, NJ, PA, IL, OH and Ontario.
| Market | Senators | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 (opened -148) |
| Puck line | +1.5 (-218) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-122) | Under 6.5 (+102) |
At -130, the implied win probability for Buffalo is about 57%. At the -148 opener, it was about 60%. We’ll take the discount.
Recent Special Teams and Possession
| Metric | Senators (Nov 1 at ANA) | Sabres (Oct 31 at LA) |
|---|---|---|
| Result | L 6-3 | W 3-2 |
| Power play | 0-for-3 | 2-for-3 |
| Penalty kill | 1-for-5 | 4-for-5 |
| Faceoff win % | 56.9% | 35.8% |
| Blocked shots | 12 | 30 |
The Plays
- Sabres moneyline (-130): The core play. Home ice, a three-game win streak and a power play that’s cashing against a team that keeps taking penalties, at a better price than the open.
- Jack Quinn power-play point (or anytime point): He’s on the unit that just converted twice. If the prop is plus money, it’s playable.
- Under 6.5 (+102): A small lean, and only if both projected goalies are confirmed. The over is juiced to -122, so the under gets you plus money.
The Strategy
- Price the moneyline, don’t force the puck line. At +180, -1.5 looks tempting, but NHL games are tight and Buffalo lost the faceoff battle badly last time out.
- Wait for the goalie confirmations. That’s when the total and the moneyline will move, so wait if you can.
- Live-bet the penalty trend. If Ottawa takes two early minors, that’s your signal to add Buffalo in-game.
Bottom Line
Ottawa has the faceoff edge and last season’s head-to-head result. Buffalo has the home ice, the hot streak and the special teams. In a game this tight, special teams usually win the argument.
So, is Ottawa’s 3-0 collapse at Anaheim a one-off, or a discipline problem the Sabres will exploit? Let me know in the comments.
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